This morning, ADP released it's monthly Employment Report. In the report, Private Payrolls were estimated to increase by 119k. The ADP report is probably the single best predictor of the monthly increase in Non-Farm payrolls (To be released this Friday at 8:30 am EST).
The ADP report has been in the 100k -200k range over the past 18 months. Refining my estimate for the NonFarm Payroll change released Friday (Senior Loan Officer Survey would predict 250k, while Temp Employment is predicting 150k), gives a new expectation that NonFram payroll growth will be in the 150k range. As I prepare for Friday's Jobs Report, it is also important to recognize that the Jobs Report could come anywhere in the range of 100k to 300k without invalidating any of the the analysis that I have done.
I cannot emphasize enough that the Establish Survey portion of the Jobs Report is based on a survey that individual employers voluntarily fill out. There are also a lot of seasonal adjustments to account for the seasonal nature of employment in certain industries. There is also a "birth/death" model that adjusts the NonFarm payroll numbers to account for the inability of the survey to capture the creation of new firms or the death of old firms. From a full disclosure standpoint, my wife's small business is a survey respondent, so I have some familiarity with the NonFarm payroll survey.
I cannot emphasize enough that the Establish Survey portion of the Jobs Report is based on a survey that individual employers voluntarily fill out. There are also a lot of seasonal adjustments to account for the seasonal nature of employment in certain industries. There is also a "birth/death" model that adjusts the NonFarm payroll numbers to account for the inability of the survey to capture the creation of new firms or the death of old firms. From a full disclosure standpoint, my wife's small business is a survey respondent, so I have some familiarity with the NonFarm payroll survey.
RSS Feed
