The ADP Employment report showed a gain of 162k Private Sector Jobs in September versus a revised gain of 189k in August.
As we learned last week, the initial government count is an estimate that is based off of a survey of thousands of individual businesses. (Full disclosure: my wife's small business is a survey respondent) Each individual business inputs there payroll numbers each month and the government then estimates the economy wide payroll totals. At the end of each year, the government recompiles payroll counts from the state withholding data. For last year, the government undercounted jobs by 360k - or by 30k a month. The government puts a confidence interval of about +/- 100k on their monthly payroll count, so the actual job count could fall in a very wide range.
ADP, on the other hand, has an actual count of checks cut through their systems which allows them to then estimate the economy wide private payroll count. In real time, the ADP count is just better. It is not as choppy and it still has a incredible correlation to actual payrolls into and out of recesssions. Given the ADP count of 162k, I would expect the governmet to estimate 150k-200k total jobs added in September in this Friday's jobs report.