BELLAIRE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
  • Home
  • About Us
    • Company News
    • Our Team
  • Services
    • Financial Planning >
      • Stage 1: Early Adult Planning
      • Stage 2: Planning as An Adult
      • Stage 3: Pre-Retirement Planning
      • Stage 4: Post-Retirement Planning
    • Small Business Planning >
      • Small Business Continuity Planning
    • Investment Strategies >
      • Saving For Retirement
  • Kevin's Corner
    • Investing Wisely Series...
    • Planning Wisely Series
  • Market Viewpoints Blog
    • ReCalc Blog
    • Register for Updates
  • Contact Us
  • Events

ADP Reports shows 163k new jobs in July

8/1/2012

 
Kevin Spires, CFA, FRM
Picture
The ADP Employment report was released earlier this morning and according to ADP, 163k private sector jobs were added in July versus 172k jobs added in June.

The ADP report is the single best predictor of the number of jobs to be reported by the government on Friday with a 92.5% correlation over the past 10 years.  The main difference between the Jobs Report released by the government and the report released by ADP is the additional count of government jobs by the government.
I strongly believe that the ADP report is a better report.  Their number is based on a count of actual payroll jobs that are processed through their system.  The government report is based initially on a survey that requires thousands of employers to self report their payroll numbers.  (Disclosure:  My wife's small business is a payroll survey respondent).  The government slowly revises the payroll count as it receives actual payroll tax data and it's count becomes better, but only with long lags.

Based on the ADP report, I would expect 150-175k total additions to payrolls to be reported by the Jobs Report on Friday, but anything 100k either side of that range shouldn't be a surprise.  The seasonals seem to be favoring greater job growth, with fewer auto manufacturing layoffs, but you can never discount the effect that the European Crisis and the looming fiscal cliff might have had on


Comments are closed.
    Contact Us

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    March 2017
    May 2016
    December 2015
    March 2014
    February 2014
    December 2012
    October 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012

    Categories

    All
    2012 Election
    2016 Election
    Bank Credit
    Consumer Credit
    Corporate Profits
    Economic Outlook
    Employment
    European Debt Crisis
    Fed Balance Sheet
    Fed Watch
    Housing
    Leaders
    Liquidity
    Manufacturing
    Money Supply
    Stock Market Technicals

Contact Us
​All rights reserved by Bellaire Capital Management, LLC
​​LegalPrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
Live Chat Support ×

Connecting

You: ::content::
::agent_name:: ::content::
::content::
::content::