- A recovery in Home Construction is underway with double digit growth rates in Housing Starts Y/Y.
- Home Prices will probably not increase nationwide for another year at least. The Housing Market Indicator put out by NAHB/Wells Fargo is a good predictor of the trend in the Case-Shiller HPI. The HMI, currently at 25, will need to get above 40 before the bottom in Housing Prices is reached.
- There are still 3-4 Million Extra Homes that were built during the bubble that are not occupied if you look at normal Home and Apartment Vacancy Rates. At current rates of absorbtion, it will take another 5-7 years to finally get rid of all this "Shadow" inventory.
With April in the books, I have updated my Housing Market Chart Package. Steady as she goes is my take on the Housing Market