Senior Loan Officer's Survey leads Credit Growth with a 3-5 quarter Lead...
Once a quarter, the Federal Reserve surveys Senior Loan Officers at Commercial Banks to see if they are tightening or loosening lending standards. The survey results covering lending standards to small business are an especially good predictor of Commerical and Industrial (C&I) loan growth at Banks.
Due to 8 straight quarters of loosening lending standards, C&I loan growth has been rising at an accelerating pace over the past year. The double digit C&I loan growth should continue for at least the next year. The picture is very clear, there is not a credit "crunch" on the horizon in the United States. Anyone expecting a decceleration in the Private Sector due to a slowdown in private credit creation is going to be sorely dissappointed.
Due to 8 straight quarters of loosening lending standards, C&I loan growth has been rising at an accelerating pace over the past year. The double digit C&I loan growth should continue for at least the next year. The picture is very clear, there is not a credit "crunch" on the horizon in the United States. Anyone expecting a decceleration in the Private Sector due to a slowdown in private credit creation is going to be sorely dissappointed.
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