Kevin Spires, CFA, FRM
Initial Jobless Claims were 377k last week - a drop of 6k from the initial report of 383k (revised up to 389k). With the latest week, the four week moving average rose to 377.5k.
Just looking back to the last two years, much less the last recovery in 2002/2003, a small bump in claims is not unusual. Between seasonal adjustments, the ongoing adjustment in the public sector and the weaker than average College hiring, the numbers are a bit jumpy from week to week. For a better sense of where claims are, the year over year comparison is better - and the four week moving average is down 10.75% from the same week last year - so the job market is not about to lead us back into recession.
Just looking back to the last two years, much less the last recovery in 2002/2003, a small bump in claims is not unusual. Between seasonal adjustments, the ongoing adjustment in the public sector and the weaker than average College hiring, the numbers are a bit jumpy from week to week. For a better sense of where claims are, the year over year comparison is better - and the four week moving average is down 10.75% from the same week last year - so the job market is not about to lead us back into recession.
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