Initial Jobless Claims were reported as 374k this morning down from an unrevised 386k. The 4 week moving average has moved down slightly to 385k.
It is pretty obvious that there are some quirky (to say the least) seasonal adjustment problems in the data. But, if we were just looking at the current, seasnally adjusted data, one would be worried about the direction of the US Economy. Continued increases in jobless claims at the rate seen in the last quarter would be a pretty clear sign that a recession was a strong possibility as claims is one of the first indicators that goes South.
Unfortunately, in the midst of an expansion, claims are exceptionally choppy and are pretty much uncorrelated to monthly fluctations in job growth (just look at the data in the 1990's). But, if I had to use just this one indicator to predict job growth, I would expect only 0-50k jobs were added in June. In light of the seasonal adjustment issues and the US Economy's place in the middle of an expansion, I would discount this indicator entirely with respect to tomorrow's jobs report.