Kevin Spires, CFA, FRM
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases a survey of Manufacturers and a survey of Non-Manufacturers each month. Widely followed, the ISM moves markets when the results are better or worse than expected.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases a survey of Manufacturers and a survey of Non-Manufacturers each month. Widely followed, the ISM moves markets when the results are better or worse than expected.
The Employment subcomponents of the two ISM surveys are a good predictor of the current employment picture across the whole economy. In particular, an average of the two surveys, weighted 80% towards the Non-Manufacturing Survey and 20% towards the Manufacturing Survey is an excellent predictor of current employment growth.
Given the current level of this indicator, I would expect about .20% Quarterly employment growth which equals about 75k -100k payroll jobs growth a month.
The ISM Employment sub-components are showing tepid growth in jobs - which has lined up fairly well with actual employment growth the past few months.
Given the current level of this indicator, I would expect about .20% Quarterly employment growth which equals about 75k -100k payroll jobs growth a month.
The ISM Employment sub-components are showing tepid growth in jobs - which has lined up fairly well with actual employment growth the past few months.
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