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ISM Employment fairly weak...

10/3/2012

 
Kevin Spires, CFA, FRM

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases a survey of Manufacturers and a survey of Non-Manufacturers each month.  Widely followed, the ISM moves markets when the results are better or worse than expected.
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The Employment subcomponents of the two ISM surveys are a good predictor of the current employment picture across the whole economy.  In particular, an average of the two surveys, weighted 80% towards the Non-Manufacturing Survey and 20% towards the Manufacturing Survey is an excellent predictor of current employment growth.

Given the current level of this indicator, I would expect about .20% Quarterly employment growth which equals about 75k -100k payroll jobs growth a month.
The ISM Employment sub-components are showing tepid growth in jobs - which has lined up fairly well with actual employment growth the past few months.


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