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ISM Manufacturing drops to 49.7

7/2/2012

 
Kevin Spires, CFA, FRM

The ISM Manufacturing report was released at 10:00 am EST today.  It was much worse than expected, with the Composite falling to 49.7 from 53.5 last month (50 is expansion/contraction threshhold).  New Orders plunged over 12 points from 60.1 to 47.8.  Employment was the lone bright spot, dropping slightly from 56.9 to 56.6.
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With the plunge in the New Orders sub-component, Industrial Production growth is likely to stall in the coming quarter.  Looking at the trend in New Orders, there have been lower highs and lower lows each year going back to the start of the recovery in 2009.

This is another data point that will cause markets to build in expectations of QE3.  I believe that Bernanke wants to print more money, but he is hesitant to do so without a longer string of weaker data. 


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