Kevin Spires, CFA, FRM
The last report this month that I can use to estimate payroll growth is the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report. Weekly Claims are not very useful in predicting the monthly number of new Jobs created in the economy - at least not as useful as other indicators - but, initial claims are better are predicting turning points. For now, Claims are not predicting an imminent turn in the economy.
The last report this month that I can use to estimate payroll growth is the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report. Weekly Claims are not very useful in predicting the monthly number of new Jobs created in the economy - at least not as useful as other indicators - but, initial claims are better are predicting turning points. For now, Claims are not predicting an imminent turn in the economy.
Initial Claims were 383k last week, with a four week moving average of 374.5k. Based on this data, I would expect the monthly jobs report to show a gain of 100-150k total jobs.
Given an ADP report showing 133k private sector jobs added in May, I am adjusting my expectations for the Jobs Report. I am now expecting 150k new jobs to be reported for May - with a fairly high level of uncertainty.
Given an ADP report showing 133k private sector jobs added in May, I am adjusting my expectations for the Jobs Report. I am now expecting 150k new jobs to be reported for May - with a fairly high level of uncertainty.
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