With the monthly jobs report due out on Friday morning, I am reviewing my favorite employment indicators this week to get a sense of the underlying trend in employment. As I have written before, I don't think the Jobs Report itself is a very good data point, statistically speaking. For instance, the bls states that the confidence interval of the monthly change in jobs is +/- 100,000 jobs. Last month, 69k jobs were reportedly added in May, well below the 150k that the market was expecting about a week before the report - making the miss not statistically significant. Yet the S&P 500 dropped by over 2% after the release then rallied 6% from that day until the end of the month. Go figure.
Growth Rate of Temporary Workers predicts 200k+ jobs/month.