Kevin Spires, CFA, FRM
President Obama's reelection odds have taken a hit over the past couple of days - dropping to 54.1% at www.intrade.com. Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.9%. Only 69k jobs were added in May and the Unemployment rate ticked up to 8.2%.
More ominously, the S&P 500 is down 10% from its recent highs - dropping back below 1300. Obama's reelection odds have been positively correlated with the stock market and the recent drop has clipped 6-7% off his reelection odds.
Its the Economy stupid is always the best way to view the presidential election and as the best indicator of the Economy, I will be paying close attention to the stock market between now and election day.
Its the Economy stupid is always the best way to view the presidential election and as the best indicator of the Economy, I will be paying close attention to the stock market between now and election day.
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