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Obama intrade reelection odds down to 54.1%

6/2/2012

 
Kevin Spires, CFA, FRM
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President Obama's reelection odds have taken a hit over the past couple of days - dropping to 54.1% at www.intrade.com.  Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.9%.  Only 69k jobs were added in May and the Unemployment rate ticked up to 8.2%.

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More ominously, the S&P 500 is down 10% from its recent highs - dropping back below 1300.  Obama's reelection odds have been positively correlated with the stock market and the recent drop has clipped 6-7% off his reelection odds.

Its the Economy stupid is always the best way to view the presidential election and as the best indicator of the Economy, I will be paying close attention to the stock market between now and election day.


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