Business Insider has an article by Advisor Perspective's Robert Huebscher giving David Rosenberg's outlook on the odds of a recession over the next year or two. The best quote is Rosenberg saying that
The U.S. economy is incredibly resilient, he said, and he agreed with the adage
that a recovery never “dies of old age.” It takes a “negative shock” to start
a recession, he said ‑- “and those always have the Fed’s thumbprint on
This is directly in line with my adage that expansions do not "commit suicide but rather it is always murder." The slope of the Treasury Yield Curve is a great predictor of recessions and Federal Reserve, with its near total control of the shortest maturities, is the one in control of that slope.
Read more: http://advisorperspectives.com/newsletters14/David_Rosenberg-No_US_Recession_in_Sight.php#ixzz2v25SJBe3