Kevin Spires, CFA, FRM
(Disclosure: Bellaire Capital Management was long SPY on behalf of its clients at the time this was written)
(Disclosure: Bellaire Capital Management was long SPY on behalf of its clients at the time this was written)
The Stock Market (represented here by SPY, the S&P 500 Index ETF) has rallied up from the 200 day moving average back towards 135. The last time the market was at this point, it was breaking down through the bottom of the upward channel the market had been in since last October. If the market can close back above 135 on the SPY, it has a decent chance of running all the way back up the 140.
The market may be getting a little ahead of itself and a little caution is in order. I think it is too early for a retest of the recent highs and would expect a retest of the 200 day moving average at least one more time. I think we are probably range bound until the elections are over in November. If the elections (not to mention the European Debt Crisis) are resolved in a more market friendly direction, then a rally to new highs at 1450 or above on the S&P 500 could be considered. Until then, the market will probably remain choppy with above average daily volatility.
Disclaimer:
This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy securities. Forecasts, estimates and opinions stated are my own and the data presented is for educational purposes
only. Investments involve risk unless otherwise stated. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Be sure to first consult with a qualified tax and/or financial adviser before implementing any strategy discussed.
The market may be getting a little ahead of itself and a little caution is in order. I think it is too early for a retest of the recent highs and would expect a retest of the 200 day moving average at least one more time. I think we are probably range bound until the elections are over in November. If the elections (not to mention the European Debt Crisis) are resolved in a more market friendly direction, then a rally to new highs at 1450 or above on the S&P 500 could be considered. Until then, the market will probably remain choppy with above average daily volatility.
Disclaimer:
This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy securities. Forecasts, estimates and opinions stated are my own and the data presented is for educational purposes
only. Investments involve risk unless otherwise stated. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Be sure to first consult with a qualified tax and/or financial adviser before implementing any strategy discussed.
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