According to Yale Economist Ray Fair, the Republican nominee is the early favorite to easily take the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Dr. Fair's econometric based model predicts the two party vote share in both the Presidential and Congressional elections. The main inputs to his model are GDP growth, inflation, and incumbency - where the longer a party retains control of the presidency the less likely the public is to vote for that party going forward.
According to Fair's model, The 2016 election cycle is very unfriendly to the Democratic Party. With the second term of the Obama presidency coming to a close, a bias to change parties and give the other side a chance gives the Republicans a strong head start. Coupled with tepid economic growth the impetus to change could be overwhelming. According to Fair's model - which has been within 2% of the winner's vote percentage in every year since 1978, the Republicans should win the presidency 55-45% and win Congress with a 54.5-45.5% margin.
Given Ray Fair's model - which doesn't know anything about Trump or Clinton - get ready to say "President Donald J. Trump." The only wildcard that might tip the election to Clinton is a third party run to the right of Trump that siphons off enough votes in swing states to cost Trump the election.
According to Fair's model, The 2016 election cycle is very unfriendly to the Democratic Party. With the second term of the Obama presidency coming to a close, a bias to change parties and give the other side a chance gives the Republicans a strong head start. Coupled with tepid economic growth the impetus to change could be overwhelming. According to Fair's model - which has been within 2% of the winner's vote percentage in every year since 1978, the Republicans should win the presidency 55-45% and win Congress with a 54.5-45.5% margin.
Given Ray Fair's model - which doesn't know anything about Trump or Clinton - get ready to say "President Donald J. Trump." The only wildcard that might tip the election to Clinton is a third party run to the right of Trump that siphons off enough votes in swing states to cost Trump the election.
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