Monthly Employment Indicators in Chart Package Form: US Employment Chart Package
Click on our Monthly US Housing Chart Package. Housing has clearly bottomed, but will take a long time to clear out the excess supply built during the Housing Boom.
Click on the Monthly US Housing Chart Package. Anyone who thinks that Housing has not bottomed had missed a great run in the US Housing Market. Housing Starts are up over 30% from the bottom. The Case-Shiller HPI is showing year over year growth. Most importantly, XHB, the Housing Sector ETF is up over 65% in the past year - and over 30+% more than the S&P 500.
For the first time in many months, the non-US markets have been outperforming the US Equity Markets. Click on our Weekly MSCI Equity Market Chart Package for all the data. In August, Greece, Italy, and Spain have been the best performers, up 13.60%, 9.39%, and 11.87% respectively. Looks like there are more people who think Mario Draghi will come through in the clutch than think a new round of defaults and haircuts is eminent.
Click on our Weekly Emerging Market Equity Recap. Performance has been mixed with country factors dominating in Viet Nam (down) and Eqypt (Up).
Click on our Weekly US Equity Sector Chart Package. Equities look to end August on a two month winning streak. Utilities still lag other Equities with a pro-cyclical tilt in performance.
Click on our Weekly Bank Credit Chart Package. Bank Credit growth has slowed recently and over the past month has actually contracted by -0.92% at a SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate). C&I Loans remain healthy, growing 15.66% M/M, 17.40% Q/Q, and 13.87% Y/Y. Most other categories of credit are weak, including consumer loans, commercial real estate loans, and residential real estate loans.
Consumer Loans and Real Estate Loans should be growing weakly. Compared to historical norms, there is plenty more delevering that should take place in these sectors. C&I loan growth is a positive factor - showing the cyclical strength in the corporate sector. Bernanke will probably cite the weakness in credit growth if he ramps up another round of Quantitative Easing.
Click on our Weekly Money Supply Chart Package. M1 & M2 continue their shorter term acceleration with M1 growing 14.46% M/M versus 8.82% Q/Q and 11.41% Y/Y. M2 has grown 6.16% M/M, 5.85% Q/Q and 6.55% Y/Y. Money Supply growth is key to understanding whether Bernanke is going to start up another round of Quantitative Easing. The past 2 recession were preceded by Money Supply Growth rates near zero or below.
Click on the Weekly US Equity Sector Recap. The last two months have been risk-on with the market and the more cyclical sectors outperforming noncyclicals. Utilities and Healthcare have been the two worst sectors in this run, while Technology, Telecoms, and Energy have been the best sectors.
Click on the Weekly Emerging Market Stock Recap. Emerging Markets stocks have been performing in line with the S&P 500 this month, but the variation has been wide with the Phillipines underperforming and Russian and Poland outperforming.